Colorado State University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach released a report last month predicting 15 named storms and eight major storms (ones that would be rated Category 3 -- with at least 111-mph winds -- or higher). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its outlook on Thursday, giving a prediction of 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes and 3-7 major hurricanes:
"NOAA's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season."
There's an outstanding crisis that could make hurricane season in the U.S. even more of a mess: the still-gushing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. From the New York Times:
"If a hurricane rolled over the spill, the winds and storm surges could disperse the oil over a wider area and push it far inland, damaging the fragile marshlands.
'It would very definitely turn an environmental disaster into an unprecedented environmental catastrophe,' said Brian D. McNoldy, a tropical storms researcher at Colorado State University.
Specific predictions are impossible to make because the effects would depend on the path, strength and speed of a hurricane, as well as the size and location of the oil spill when the storm arrived. Because of the counterclockwise rotation of hurricane winds, a storm passing to the west of the slick would tend to push the oil to the coast, while a storm passing to the east would drive the oil away from land.
The winds churn water down only a few hundred feet, so a hurricane would probably not have a major effect on the large plumes of oil believed to be accumulating deep underwater."
0 comments:
Post a Comment