Saturday, May 1, 2010

Sirius

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Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI.O) shook off the threat of a Nasdaq delisting on Tuesday, vindicating the scores of retail investors who had bet on the satellite radio service when it was shunted by big institutional funds.

While many small-time investors have seen their investment in Sirius double or even triple in the past year, some say they won't be cashing in profits and are holding on to their shares in the hope of further gains.

Wall Street brokerages have price targets on Sirius at around $1.15 to $1.35 a share, not far above the $1.145 that the stock closed at on Tuesday, which was the 10th day that it has ended above $1, satisfying a Nasdaq listing requirement.

Ron Reed, an individual investor from Burleson, Texas, thinks Sirius XM can gain another dollar or two.

"I'm feeling more confident (and) still in it for the long haul," said Reed, who bought Sirius about a year ago when it traded at 42 cents a share. He had hoped the stock would end 2009 as high as $2: it only made it to 60 cents, and he had recently considered liquidating his position.

Since then, however, the company -- home to original programing from Oprah Winfrey, Howard Stern, Major League Baseball and others -- has reported its first profit and Chief Executive Mel Karmazin has pointed to subscriber growth and a 7 percent increase in revenue this year.

Despite the fact that Sirius shares have jumped 91 percent -- nearly tripling Reed's initial investment -- he's not ready to jump off of the bandwagon.

To be sure, Sirius is one of the most volatile stocks on Nasdaq with a huge float of 3.9 billion shares. Internet finance sites and Twitter streams are filled with daytraders' tales of jumping into -- and out of -- Sirius every day. On the day after he bought into Sirius, one such trader told Reuters: it was "highly doubtful I will hold." He sold the next day.

But now that the stock is trading above $1, that could return credibility that was lost when it dipped as low as 5 cents last February, and pave the way for more institutional investors to consider Sirius XM shares.

Mutual funds tend to shy away from a company whose shares trade under $5 and all but avoid those under $1. Sirius XM's current top institutional shareholders include Manulife Financial's (MFC.TO) MFC GLobal, Vanguard Group and Apollo Investment Management LP.

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